Dollar settlements "tomorrow" to 20.23 MSK increased by 6.3 rubles - to 64.4 ruble, the euro - 6.6 rubles to 78.9 rubles, from the data of the Moscow Exchange.
MOSCOW, December 15
The ruble against the currency basket in the "Black Monday" felt a strong decline since the credit default 1998: panic selling has not correlate with the dynamics of world oil prices. Foreign currencies rose for a day on record for many years six rubles, exceeding 64 rubles per dollar and almost reaching 79 rubles per euro.
Dollar settlements "tomorrow" to 20.23 MSK increased by 6.3 rubles - to 64.4 ruble, the euro - 6.6 rubles to 78.9 rubles, from the data of the Moscow Exchange.
Panic in the "Black Monday"
Ruble in the morning on Monday continued to lose ground, even though the relatively positive trend in oil prices. So, in the morning black gold has grown in the correction, testing the strength level of 63 dollars per barrel mark Brent. However, in the evening, this increase was at a loss and the price returned to negative - below 62 dollars.
Against this background, the attack on the ruble increased. During the day (about 16.00 MSK) in the mark of 61 rubles to the dollar in the market there was an increase trading activity - their volume for 20 minutes was about $ 1 billion. At the same time the dollar rolled away down more than 1 ruble, suggesting that output from the Central Bank intervention to support the ruble.
But the respite lasted only until 17.30 MSK, when the dollar and the euro went up again, updating the historical height. By evening they were added to 6 rubles, which is not mentioned in the Russian market for about 15 years.
Consistent with the gloomy background and the Central Bank forecasts released. In particular, the regulator expects capital outflow from Russia in the fourth quarter of 2014 at 49 billion dollars. Terms of external borrowing for the issuers of the Russian Federation remain unfavorable for at least the next one to two quarters in terms of sanctions, which will continue until the end of 2017. The fall in GDP of Russia, while maintaining oil prices at $ 60 per barrel in the medium term will be 4.5-4.7% in 2015 and 0.9-1.1% in 2016, according to the Central Bank.
Forecasts and recommendations
Stop-win game against the ruble can now only turn on the oil market and collapse the limits on weekly auctions conducted by the Central Bank repos, said Yuri Kravchenko from IR "Veles Capital".
"As for the second, something really drastic measures market regulator had still not seen, and the threat of the authorities of the" cuts "ruble liquidity remain just words," - he added.
Today the dollar almost doubled its value in rubles since the beginning of 2014, said Sergei Kochergin of companies Exness. "The dynamics of the oil market should not cause a panic in the markets. Unfortunately, market participants ignore statements CBR that in Russia will not impose restrictions on the movement of capital. Thus, the sale of rubles can only be explained distrust of speculators in the Russian regulator" , - he said.
"This week, the ruble will support probably not even the tax period in the Russian Federation or the rebound in oil prices, and the speech of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on 18 December. During the week, we can not rule out the return of the dollar to 58 rubles," - added Kochergin.
Russian Ruble Is Collapsing
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